· EZU -0.4%, EMXC +1.4%, EWJ +0.4%, EWU +0.2%, FXI +1.9% · USO -2.3%, DBA +0.9%, CPER +0.8%, GLD -0.2%, SLV +0.9% · SHY +0.0%, TLT -0.4%, IGOV -0.1%
Volatility Alerts (≥1.0σ True Range)
Assets experiencing unusually wide trading range comparedto log-normal historical baseline.
28-Day Horizon
| Ticker |
Range |
△28d |
Z-Score |
|
MXNUSD
|
9.3% |
-6.4% |
+1.9σ |
|
CADUSD
|
3.9% |
-3.1% |
+1.3σ |
365-Day Horizon
| Ticker |
Range |
△365d |
Z-Score |
|
USO
|
147.5% |
+97.5% |
+2.0σ |
|
EMXC
|
63.9% |
+52.2% |
+1.5σ |
|
SLV
|
163.4% |
+25.1% |
+1.4σ |
Monday, Oct 5
-
ISM Services PMI (Today's Print):
Actual: 54.9 vs Consensus: 55.0 —
Headline services growth held steady in expansion territory as employment recovered to 50.1, while prices paid accelerated sharply to 74.0, sustaining stagflationary pressures.
Tuesday, Oct 6
-
U.S. Trade Balance (Tuesday 8:30 AM ET):
Consensus: -$95.2B / Prior: -$88.6B —
Deficit expected to widen sharply on firm import demand and higher energy costs, highlighting net export drags on third-quarter GDP tracking.
Wednesday, Oct 7
-
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday 2:00 PM ET):
Policy Target: 3.75%–4.00% / Prior Action: +25 bps hike —
Scrutiny on the breadth of hawkish consensus behind September's 25 bps rate hike versus growing member tolerance for an autumn pause following recent soft labor data.
Thursday, Oct 8
-
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday 8:30 AM ET):
Consensus: 200k / Prior: 197k —
Claims expected to remain anchored near multi-decade lows, signaling employers continue to hoard labor despite broader macroeconomic headwinds.
Friday, Oct 9
-
Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim (Friday 10:00 AM ET):
Consensus: 47.6 / Prior: 48.1 —
Sentiment tracking near historical troughs; watch whether 1-year (4.6% prior) and 5-year (3.4% prior) inflation expectations continue unanchoring.
Stock Indices
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| SPY |
774.82 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
1% |
16% |
| QQQ |
756.00 |
0.9% |
2.6% |
5% |
25% |
| IWM |
283.30 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
-4% |
16% |
| RSP |
211.12 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
-3% |
12% |
| IJR |
139.04 |
0.5% |
1.2% |
-4% |
17% |
International
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| EZU |
66.79 |
-0.4% |
-2.5% |
-5% |
9% |
| EMXC |
102.75 |
1.4% |
3.0% |
1% |
52% |
| EWJ |
99.30 |
0.4% |
3.0% |
1% |
24% |
| EWU |
46.16 |
0.2% |
-2.3% |
-5% |
12% |
| FXI |
33.86 |
1.9% |
-0.9% |
-3% |
-17% |
Commodities
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| USO |
143.95 |
-2.3% |
-3.8% |
-2% |
98% |
| DBA |
28.46 |
0.9% |
0.7% |
-2% |
10% |
| CPER |
39.85 |
0.8% |
0.3% |
-2% |
28% |
| GLD |
379.32 |
-0.2% |
0.4% |
-5% |
4% |
| SLV |
55.12 |
0.9% |
0.3% |
-7% |
25% |
Bond
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| SHY |
81.08 |
0.0% |
-0.0% |
-1% |
1% |
| TLT |
77.14 |
-0.4% |
-1.9% |
-6% |
-9% |
| IGOV |
39.77 |
-0.1% |
-0.3% |
-4% |
-5% |
Crypto
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| BTC-USD |
85,804.58 |
1.7% |
2.8% |
8% |
-31% |
| ETH-USD |
2,711.66 |
1.7% |
1.1% |
9% |
-40% |
| DOGE-USD |
0.0963 |
5.2% |
2.6% |
7% |
-62% |
Fx Eur
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| EURUSD |
1.12 |
-0.3% |
-1.3% |
-3% |
-4% |
| GBPUSD |
1.32 |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
-2% |
-2% |
| SEKUSD |
0.0996 |
-0.1% |
-0.8% |
-4% |
-6% |
| NOKUSD |
0.1043 |
0.2% |
-0.6% |
-3% |
4% |
| CHFUSD |
1.20 |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
-3% |
-4% |
Fx Asia
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| JPYUSD |
0.0063297 |
-0.1% |
-0.4% |
-2% |
-5% |
| KRWUSD |
0.0007452 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
0% |
5% |
| TWDUSD |
0.0315 |
0.3% |
0.2% |
-1% |
-4% |
| CNYUSD |
0.1492 |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0% |
6% |
Fx Other
| Symbol |
Price |
△1 |
△7 |
△28 |
△365 |
| CADUSD |
0.7013 |
-0.1% |
-0.6% |
-3% |
-2% |
| AUDUSD |
0.6973 |
0.2% |
-0.6% |
-3% |
6% |
| NZDUSD |
0.5600 |
-0.3% |
-1.2% |
-5% |
-4% |
| MXNUSD |
0.0553 |
0.4% |
-0.5% |
-6% |
2% |
Technicals
This chart shows the percent of the S&P 500 over 50 and 200 day simple moving averages — an indication of breadth. This is a test view and may change; feedback is welcome.
200d MA Crossovers
Stocks Crossing Above 200d Moving Average
| Ticker |
Name |
Prior Days |
Max Drawdown |
Industry |
P/OI |
5Y Avg |
| MYGN |
MYRIAD GENETICS INC |
63 |
42.0% |
None |
|
|
| RMBS |
RAMBUS INC |
84 |
27.5% |
semiconductors |
44.1 |
40.4 |
| LOPE |
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. |
162 |
15.3% |
education services |
14.0 |
15.7 |
Stocks Crossing Below 200d Moving Average
| Ticker |
Name |
Prior Days |
Max Runup |
Industry |
P/OI |
5Y Avg |
| SLG |
SL GREEN REALTY CORP |
135 |
31.8% |
office reits |
4.9 |
5.3 |
| CUZ |
COUSINS PROPERTIES INC |
168 |
25.7% |
office reits |
6.4 |
6.5 |
| BMY |
BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO |
80 |
14.4% |
pharmaceuticals |
8.2 |
14.4 |
Individual Stock Volatility Scanners
Largest Volatility Spikes in the Past Day
| Ticker |
Name |
Sector |
Range |
△1d |
Z-Score |
| PTC |
PTC INC. |
information technology |
36.1% |
+33.6% |
+14.7σ |
| OPCH |
Option Care Health, Inc. |
health care |
30.9% |
+29.8% |
+10.4σ |
| CHRW |
C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. |
industrials |
19.4% |
-10.3% |
+8.5σ |
| RXO |
RXO, Inc. |
industrials |
24.5% |
+22.4% |
+5.6σ |
| MRP |
Millrose Properties, Inc. |
real estate |
12.6% |
-8.7% |
+4.5σ |
| SPHR |
Sphere Entertainment Co. |
communication services |
16.6% |
-13.5% |
+4.3σ |
| EHC |
Encompass Health Corp |
health care |
8.5% |
+7.0% |
+4.1σ |
| QDEL |
QuidelOrtho Corp |
health care |
18.9% |
+12.7% |
+3.7σ |
| BSY |
BENTLEY SYSTEMS INC |
information technology |
10.0% |
+7.8% |
+3.7σ |
| EVTC |
EVERTEC, Inc. |
financials |
8.9% |
+6.9% |
+3.6σ |
Largest Volatility Spikes in the Past 7 Days
| Ticker |
Name |
Sector |
Range |
△7d |
Z-Score |
| CTVA |
Corteva, Inc. |
materials |
571.2% |
-83.7% |
+18.4σ |
| PTC |
PTC INC. |
information technology |
46.0% |
+37.7% |
+8.8σ |
| MAT |
MATTEL INC /DE/ |
consumer discretionary |
39.0% |
+20.6% |
+5.8σ |
| ACN |
Accenture plc |
information technology |
32.3% |
+11.4% |
+5.7σ |
| FICO |
FAIR ISAAC CORP |
information technology |
43.5% |
-18.2% |
+5.1σ |
| OPCH |
Option Care Health, Inc. |
health care |
31.9% |
+28.3% |
+4.4σ |
| VIRT |
Virtu Financial, Inc. |
financials |
23.4% |
+21.0% |
+4.0σ |
| UTHR |
UNITED THERAPEUTICS Corp |
health care |
24.3% |
+10.4% |
+3.8σ |
| RXO |
RXO, Inc. |
industrials |
46.5% |
+42.0% |
+3.8σ |
| MRP |
Millrose Properties, Inc. |
real estate |
23.7% |
-14.7% |
+3.7σ |
Largest Volatility Spikes in the Past 28 Days
| Ticker |
Name |
Sector |
Range |
△28d |
Z-Score |
| CTVA |
Corteva, Inc. |
materials |
659.2% |
-85.3% |
+17.6σ |
| PTC |
PTC INC. |
information technology |
54.6% |
+44.4% |
+5.4σ |
| GEN |
Gen Digital Inc. |
information technology |
54.9% |
-25.3% |
+5.0σ |
| MRP |
Millrose Properties, Inc. |
real estate |
47.2% |
-27.0% |
+4.8σ |
| FICO |
FAIR ISAAC CORP |
information technology |
73.0% |
-26.0% |
+4.5σ |
| STC |
STEWART INFORMATION SERVICES CORP |
financials |
39.5% |
-24.1% |
+4.0σ |
| AN |
AUTONATION, INC. |
consumer discretionary |
39.2% |
-22.7% |
+3.6σ |
| ABR |
ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC |
financials |
54.4% |
-30.8% |
+3.6σ |
| LQDA |
Liquidia Corp |
health care |
235.0% |
-59.2% |
+3.6σ |
| CASY |
CASEYS GENERAL STORES INC |
consumer staples |
33.5% |
-15.8% |
+3.6σ |
Largest Volatility Spikes in the Past 365 Days
| Ticker |
Name |
Sector |
Range |
△365d |
Z-Score |
| CTVA |
Corteva, Inc. |
materials |
674.9% |
-80.2% |
+15.9σ |
| ROL |
ROLLINS INC |
industrials |
125.2% |
-48.8% |
+5.2σ |
| ABR |
ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC |
financials |
241.9% |
-69.7% |
+4.9σ |
| OI |
O-I Glass, Inc. /DE/ |
materials |
219.1% |
-55.2% |
+4.8σ |
| VRRM |
VERRA MOBILITY Corp |
industrials |
815.4% |
-88.0% |
+3.9σ |
| KLAC |
KLA CORP |
information technology |
1,365.6% |
-81.8% |
+3.8σ |
| PZZA |
PAPA JOHNS INTERNATIONAL INC |
consumer discretionary |
187.4% |
-57.0% |
+3.6σ |
| LQDA |
Liquidia Corp |
health care |
319.6% |
+nan% |
+3.6σ |
| AVT |
AVNET INC |
information technology |
148.7% |
+105.3% |
+3.5σ |
| DD |
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. |
industrials |
388.8% |
+290.0% |
+3.5σ |
About the Price Report
Goal: Convey trends in prices across select asset classes. Data related to valuations, yields, and macro are treated in separate reports.
Coming Soon: Technical & Momentum Indicators. If you see a chart or metric you think would be useful here, send it to Justin.
This report is generated daily and sent to subscribers either daily or weekly.